Bet Like a Horse Racing Pro: How to Pick a Winner

Stay ahead of the pack and rely on more than just luck. Boost your chances at the track with top horse racing tips, a solid grasp of form and fitness as well as strategic analysis of the race cards!

Here we'll walk you through how seasoned punters approach betting on horses the right way.

Understanding Form and Fitness

Form refers to the horse's recent race results, indicating how it has performed during its recent runs. This is evaluated through consistency, class, how much weight the horse carried and the conditions of the track. Fitness, on the other hand, refers to the horse’s health, physical condition, and its ability to race on the track.

Let's unpack the points above:

• Consistency: If your selection frequently finishes in the top three places, then it's safe to assume that it's in good shape and has every chance of repeating the feat in its next race. It's worth noting that you'll need to keep in mind the relative strength of the other horses your selection has run against in the past. This leads up onto our next point.
• Class: Class determines the ranking system that groups horses with similar abilities and experience to race together in a bid to level the playing field and promote fair competition. From Maiden races, which are for horses that have yet to win a race and Graded races for experienced horses. When placing a bet, always keep in mind that a horse running below its true class has a good chance of performing well, while the one that is running above its class may experience struggles.
• Weight: Remember to look at how much weight your horse is carded to carry. Your selection may have won its last race against a similar field, however, carrying more weight this time around could affect its performance.
• Track Conditions: It is Important to take notes of the track conditions as some horses perform better on firm ground while others excel on a softer track after a bit of rain. In South Africa, Hollywoodbets Greyville in KwaZulu-Natal and Fairview in the Eastern Cape have both Turf (grass) and Poly (synthetic) tracks. This matters, because some horses prefer running on one surface over the other.

In short, the performance of a horse greatly relies on its form; however, form and fitness rely on several conditions, as mentioned above. It’s important to take note of these factors before backing a horse.

How to read a race card

Is the horse carrying less weight today? Is it dropping in class? Are the recent form stats positive? The race card is the answer to all these questions.

A race card is a vital tool with all the data needed to make an informed bet. Below are key points to look for in a race card before placing a bet. It becomes easier to identify a horse that is likely to win when you have good knowledge of these details on the race card.

• Odds:The odds of your horse reflect the bookmaker’s view of each horse’s winning probability. Shorter odds suggest a horse is more heavily favoured to win, while longer odds indicate a lower chance of winning.
• Name, age, colour and sex: Your horse's name, age and sex are included in the race card. For Example you might see HORSENAME 3y.o b f - the latter string of numbers and letters refers to the age: three-years-old, the colour: bay, the sex: filly.
• Weight: We touched on weight in the last section as well. But this will be displayed prominently in your race card. Understanding that your selection is carrying 6kgs more in its next race is an important indicator as to how well it could run.
• Jockey and trainer stats: This section will speak to both the rider and trainer of the horse. It will indicate how many wins, places and runs they have for the current season. It's also worth noting that some jockey/trainer combinations are worth looking out for. For example, Richard Fourie and Alan Greeff have formed a formidable partnership at Fairview in the Eastern Cape, winning more than their fair share of races at the centre.
• Draw:This indicates the horse's starting stall. Depending on the track, starting on the inside or outside can be an added advantage or disadvantage. For example, at Hollywoodbets Durbanville, horses drawn nearer to the inside often have a big advantage, while in the Hollywoodbets Durban July at Greyville the draw doesn't affect proceedings as much.
• Recent Form: Shows the finishing positions in recent races (example: 4, 3, 1, 1)

Top Tips from Seasoned Punters

The tips provide you with the needed edge to make smarter picks. Long-time punters usually follow strategies that have been proven to have worked before. Some quick tips for you:

• Avoid always backing the favourite, always look for patterns and value instead.
• Keep an eye on the odds; a sudden change in odds signals the bookmaker’s confidence.
• Stick to your strategy and avoid betting emotionally. Do not try to chase losses or ride on a winning streak.

It is important to note that professional tips smarten you up, but they are not guaranteed to win; betting is still a game of chance... but you can help your chances by applying and following a strategy!