Is Sports Betting Guesswork or a Game of Strategy?
The short answer? Sports betting is a combination of guesswork and strategy. Your knowledge as a punter, however, does factor into how successful you are. In this article, we’ll use the example of soccer betting to make things simpler.
Before we proceed, it is important to keep in mind that winning is not guaranteed; several factors can change the outcome of the game. Surprise upsets happen all the time in soccer - whether in the Premier League or the UEFA Champions League .
Avoid Guesswork - Dig Deeper
If you don’t have much betting knowledge and build your slip based solely on the odds, you’ll probably choose teams that appear to be favourites. And that’s essentially guesswork. Similarly, if you’re not a regular punter and decide to place a soccer bet based on tips from social media, a WhatsApp group or a television pundit, that too amounts to guesswork.
Now let's take a look at a hypothetical example featuring Premier League sides Manchester City and Everton:
Manchester City 4/10 | Draw 33/10 | Everton 6/1
The odds point to Manchester City being the overwhelming favourites to win the match, and they’ve generally been the better-performing team between the two over the past decade, having won several titles. It seems like a no-brainer to back them to win. As an inexperienced punter, you might back City to win here, and chances are, they will. However, there is far more value to be had if you dig a bit deeper.
Elevate Your Soccer Betting with a Sound Strategy
Now when you are well-equipped in terms of betting knowledge, you will consider a team’s form, head-to-head stats, injured players, goals scored, and goals conceded before making your selection. That’s being strategic because that knowledge can assist in selecting not just the three-way betting market (home win, away win or draw), and you can explore other markets, including both teams to score, total goals and handicap.
Using the example we mentioned above, you must look at things like how each side has been performing recently, their goals scored, goals conceded, City's home record, Everton's away record and head-to-head stats.
The above statistics will help you choose a suitable market that provides value for money better returns. Say for instance City are two points above Everton on the Premier League standings, having kept four clean sheets and scored 15 goals in seven league matches. They also have the league's top scorer on their books in the form of Erling Haaland, who has scored nine times in just seven games.
On the other hand, Everton started the season well, having won three, drawn two and lost two of their seven opening games. Their standout player this season is Jack Grealish, who they signed on loan from Manchester City. This means that he is unavailable to face his parent club. They have scored nine and conceded seven goals in their opening seven matches.
Having had a look at some of the factors mentioned above, you now start to get a clearer picture of things. The fact that Everton will be without their best attacking player in Grealish coupled with the fact that City have scored 10 goals and conceded one in their last three games - you could look at the following markets for a bit more value than just backing City to win the game outright.
- Clean Sheet Home Team: Yes 1/1
- Home to Win to Nil: Yes 5/4
- First Goalscorer: Erling Haaland 26/10
Conclusion
As you can see, there are plenty of factors that you should consider before taking a soccer bet. If you're well-informed, have spent time digging into the stats and have a good grasp of how odds work and how to find value, then you're already halfway there! Now you just need to find the right game, with the right set of conditions and back the right market.
FAQs
Is sports betting just luck?
Sports betting involves a great deal of good fortune, but we always stress the importance of having a good grasp of how betting works, understanding odds, and the sport on which you are placing your bet. This foundational knowledge will help identify the right markets to bet on and improve your chances of winning.
How can I bet on sports successfully?
The best way to be in a good position to find success in betting is by doing thorough research on what you intend to place your bet on, being on the lookout for trends (such as teams that are on form), tracking your betting history to learn and fix past mistakes, and lastly, betting responsibly. Always keep in mind that winning is not guaranteed.